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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 39 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP