4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 14-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model