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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model