4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP