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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
58.3%
JAX
41.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.150 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.192 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DAL

Jake Ferguson TE Out Concussion
Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Ankle

JAX

Travon Walker LB Questionable Ankle
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Chad Muma LB Questionable Ankle
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen
Darious Williams CB Questionable Abdomen
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 34
–
JAX 40

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:39 TD DAL (4:39) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 13:08 TD DAL (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 89-P.Hendershot for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – JAX 0
  • Q2 07:49 TD JAX (7:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – JAX 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 85-N.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – JAX 7
  • Q3 10:40 FG JAX (10:40) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. DAL 21 – JAX 10
  • Q3 07:39 FG DAL (7:39) 19-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 24 – JAX 10
  • Q3 05:26 FG DAL (5:26) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – JAX 10
  • Q3 04:07 TD JAX (4:07) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Defensive Holding, declined. DAL 27 – JAX 16
  • Q3 01:28 TD JAX (1:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – JAX 23
  • Q4 10:07 TD JAX (10:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DAL 27 – JAX 30
  • Q4 03:07 TD DAL (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 33 – JAX 31
  • Q4 00:05 FG JAX (:05) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. DAL 34 – JAX 34
  • Q5 07:04 TD JAX (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 34 – JAX 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (10:43) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to JAX 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 27 for 16 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 27.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:53) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to JAX 14, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-25-N.Wright.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (10:40) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (7:39) 19-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 66%

    (5:26) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:24) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:13) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 13 yards (29-C.Goodwin).