Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

(1:13) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 13 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model