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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP