Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

(1:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model