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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 19-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP