Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(14:24) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model