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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

JAX
43.2%
TEN
56.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
TEN 24
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

JAX

Chad Muma LB Out Ankle
Andre Cisco S Questionable Shoulder
Zay Jones WR Questionable Chest
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe

TEN

Denico Autry DE Out Knee
Tre Avery CB Out Concussion
C.J. Board WR Out Rib
Treylon Burks WR Out Concussion
Kristian Fulton CB Out Groin
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Hip
Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Ankle
Teair Tart DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 36
–
TEN 22

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD TEN (9:13) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 06:07 TD JAX (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-94-M.Edwards, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. JAX 6 – TEN 7
  • Q1 03:09 TD TEN (3:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Gotsis]. JAX 7 – TEN 13
  • Q2 08:56 FG JAX (8:56) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – TEN 14
  • Q2 03:15 FG JAX (3:15) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – TEN 14
  • Q2 00:15 TD JAX (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones (21-R.McCreary). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – TEN 14
  • Q3 07:58 TD JAX (7:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. JAX 26 – TEN 14
  • Q3 03:12 TD JAX (3:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 33 – TEN 14
  • Q4 10:55 FG JAX (10:55) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 36 – TEN 14
  • Q4 07:20 TD TEN (7:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 36 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to TEN 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 40-D.Hilliard to TEN 24 for no gain (6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 40-D.Hilliard to TEN 29 for 4 yards (50-S.Quarterman; 46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (8:56) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 6 yards (40-D.Hilliard; 29-J.Thompson). TEN-40-D.Hilliard was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 85%

    (3:15) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 9 yards (86-K.Rader). Penalty on JAX-54-T.Summers, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 64%

    (14:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Z.Jones (99-R.Weaver).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (10:55) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-J.Thompson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at TEN 9.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 81%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 13-R.McMath [41-J.Allen].