Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

(:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 40-D.Hilliard to TEN 29 for 4 yards (50-S.Quarterman; 46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model