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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 22 – Jacksonville Jaguars 36

What Actually Happened

(2:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 13-R.McMath [41-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.54 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP