4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to TEN 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 40-D.Hilliard to TEN 24 for no gain (6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model