4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model