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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 36 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-J.Thompson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at TEN 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model