TEN @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni

Sunday 2022-12-04 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN

39.1%

PHI

60.9%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PHI offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
TEN defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
PHI defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
QB edge to TEN: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.116 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +0.163 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21

–

PHI 25

Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TEN

Denico Autry DE Out Knee

Cody Hollister WR Out Neck

Elijah Molden CB Out Groin

Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Hip

Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Ankle

PHI

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Out kidney

Robert Quinn DE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 10

–

PHI 35

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:11 TD PHI (12:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – PHI 6
Q1 02:53 TD TEN (2:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 16-T.Burks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-16-T.Burks was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on PHI-22-M.Epps, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 6 – PHI 7
Q2 14:03 TD PHI (14:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play. Penalty on TEN-26-K.Fulton, Illegal Contact, declined. TEN 7 – PHI 13
Q2 03:32 FG TEN (3:32) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 10 – PHI 14
Q2 00:56 TD PHI (:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – PHI 20
Q3 12:14 TD PHI (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – PHI 27
Q4 11:32 TD PHI (11:32) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(10:04) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 28 for 11 yards (56-M.Rice).
Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(8:25) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to TEN 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board to TEN 29 for 9 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 54%

(4:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end to PHI 32 for 8 yards (97-J.Hargrave).
Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(12:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 20 yards (53-D.Cole; 86-K.Rader).
Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 54%

(8:55) 8-A.Siposs punts 27 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-C.Board.
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

(3:32) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 26 for 16 yards (53-D.Cole).
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 27%

(:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith to TEN 17 for 34 yards (52-J.Schobert).
Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(13:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey ran ob at 50 for 27 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(9:49) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 37 for 25 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).
Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(8:47) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to TEN 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board to TEN 29 for 10 yards (54-S.Bradley; 21-A.Chachere).
Q3 TEN 4th & 20 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(6:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 6 yards (42-J.Jones).
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 15

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

(14:34) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 13 for 2 yards (52-J.Schobert).
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 4

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

(12:21) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 3 for 1 yard (56-M.Rice; 95-D.Walker).
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to PHI 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-C.Board.
Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(8:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to TEN 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board pushed ob at PHI 32 for 19 yards (45-R.Lovato).
Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 19

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

(5:35) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard to PHI 9 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 62%

(1:52) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to TEN 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board to TEN 27 for 4 yards (53-C.Elliss).