Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Tennessee Titans 10

(8:47) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to TEN 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board to TEN 29 for 10 yards (54-S.Bradley; 21-A.Chachere).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model