4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith to TEN 17 for 34 yards (52-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP