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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:34) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 13 for 2 yards (52-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model