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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to PHI 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model