Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 96

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – Tennessee Titans 10

(8:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to TEN 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board pushed ob at PHI 32 for 19 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.25 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 96, worth -5.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model