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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2022-11-24 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYG
38.8%
DAL
61.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.112 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.003 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
DAL 26
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

Daniel Bellinger TE Out Eye
Joshua Ezeudu G Out Neck
Jon Feliciano C Out Neck
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Knee
Shane Lemieux G Out Toe
Fabian Moreau CB Out Oblique
Evan Neal T Out Knee
Dane Belton S Questionable Collarbone
Richie James WR Questionable Knee
Tyre Phillips T Questionable Neck
Jason Pinnock S Questionable Jaw
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Illness

DAL

Anthony Barr LB Out Hamstring
Tarell Basham DE Doubtful Illness
Johnathan Hankins DT Doubtful Illness
Dante Fowler DE Questionable Illness
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Illness
Neville Gallimore DT Questionable Illness
Kelvin Joseph CB Questionable Illness
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Foot
Osa Odighizuwa DT Questionable Knee
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
DAL 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG NYG (9:49) 9-G.Gano 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – DAL 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:30 TD NYG (9:30) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – DAL 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYG (:03) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – DAL 7
  • Q3 07:26 TD DAL (7:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward]. NYG 13 – DAL 13
  • Q3 02:07 TD DAL (2:07) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 20
  • Q4 08:57 TD DAL (8:57) 89-P.Hendershot left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 27
  • Q4 00:12 TD NYG (:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 80-R.James for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DAL 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%

    (12:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:40) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 41 for 1 yard (54-J.Smith).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 14.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:40) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to NYG 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 25 for 3 yards (25-N.Wright).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:40) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (:03) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley [6-D.Wilson].

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (14:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 67%

    (3:17) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 18-I.Hodgins [92-D.Armstrong].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (1:17) 19-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.