Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 48

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.03 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP

KICK -1.04 EP

40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model