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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 28 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 19-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model