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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP