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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to NYG 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 25 for 3 yards (25-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model