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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley [6-D.Wilson].

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model