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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LAC
49.1%
ARI
50.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.082 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ARI starting Kyler Murray in place of Colt McCoy)
  • LAC defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21
–
ARI 22
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LAC

Mike Williams WR Out Ankle
Nasir Adderley S Doubtful Thumb
Michael Davis CB Questionable Knee

ARI

Zach Ertz TE Out Knee
D.J. Humphries T Out Back
Rondale Moore WR Out Groin
Byron Murphy CB Out Back
Charles Washington S Out Chest
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Thumb
Trace McSorley QB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 25
–
ARI 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:41 TD ARI (2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-49-D.Tranquill, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 14:07 FG ARI (14:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LAC 0 – ARI 10
  • Q2 08:55 TD LAC (8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – ARI 10
  • Q2 04:36 TD LAC (4:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-79-T.Pipkins was injured during the play. LAC 13 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:17 TD ARI (:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – ARI 16
  • Q3 04:31 FG LAC (4:31) 15-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 17 – ARI 17
  • Q4 13:36 TD ARI (13:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – ARI 23
  • Q4 00:18 TD LAC (:18) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – ARI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:52) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ARI 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 50%

    (9:15) 16-J.Scott punts 26 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-40-Z.Horvath.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:03) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to ARI 41, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-P.Cooper pushed ob at LAC 44 for 15 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (14:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 44. 3-D.James to LAC 44 for no gain (10-D.Hopkins).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%

    (11:06) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (4:31) 15-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (10:59) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to ARI 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:19) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LAC 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 39 for 5 yards (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:41) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:18) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-57-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 40%

    (2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter ran ob at ARI 43 for 20 yards (35-C.Matthew). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43.