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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 44. 3-D.James to LAC 44 for no gain (10-D.Hopkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model