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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model