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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.55 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model