Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter ran ob at ARI 43 for 20 yards (35-C.Matthew). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.63 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model