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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 15-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP