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Philadelphia Eagles

9-1 HC Nick Sirianni
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Indianapolis Colts

4-6-1 HC Jeff Saturday
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
66.4%
IND
33.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Sam Ehlinger (IND) -0.353 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.149 EPA/dropback (IND starting Sam Ehlinger in place of Matt Ryan)
  • PHI offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • IND defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PHI defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23 16–30
–
IND 17 10–24
Projected margin: PHI by 6 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

PHI

Josh Jobe CB Out Hamstring

IND

Kwity Paye DE Out Ankle
Jelani Woods TE Out Shoulder
Zaire Franklin LB Questionable Illness
Isaiah Rodgers CB Questionable Illness
Braden Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 17
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:40 TD IND (9:40) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 04:54 FG PHI (4:54) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 3 – IND 7
  • Q2 00:18 FG IND (:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. PHI 3 – IND 10
  • Q3 13:18 FG IND (13:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. PHI 3 – IND 13
  • Q4 13:37 TD PHI (13:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – IND 13
  • Q4 04:42 FG IND (4:42) 7-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. PHI 10 – IND 16
  • Q4 01:24 TD PHI (1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to IND 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 20. 15-K.Coutee to IND 28 for 8 yards (89-J.Stoll, 54-S.Bradley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:30) 6-M.Haack punts 47 yards to PHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 57%

    (:17) 8-A.Siposs punts 31 yards to IND 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:08) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-B.Covey to PHI 42 for 13 yards (16-A.Dulin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (4:54) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:41) 6-M.Haack punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to IND 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 45 for 17 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 75%

    (:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (13:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (9:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at IND 47 for -8 yards (59-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (59-I.Odenigbo) [59-I.Odenigbo], ball out of bounds at IND 45.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:40) 6-M.Haack punts 52 yards to PHI 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (5:04) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to IND 45, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (:40) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 19 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 93%

    (4:42) 7-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to IND 6 for 3 yards (26-R.McLeod; 44-Z.Franklin).

    See the full breakdown →