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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 6-M.Haack punts 52 yards to PHI 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model