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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 7-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model