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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model