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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-B.Covey to PHI 42 for 13 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model