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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to IND 6 for 3 yards (26-R.McLeod; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model