Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.211 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.016 EPA/dropback
- BUF defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- MIN defense: -0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:19 TD MIN (10:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – BUF 0
- Q1 08:14 TD BUF (8:14) (Shotgun) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – BUF 6
- Q1 01:08 TD BUF (1:08) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – BUF 13
- Q2 12:57 FG BUF (12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 7 – BUF 17
- Q2 07:15 FG MIN (7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – BUF 17
- Q2 00:33 TD BUF (:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. MIN 10 – BUF 23
- Q3 01:56 FG BUF (1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 10 – BUF 27
- Q3 01:46 TD MIN (1:46) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – BUF 27
- Q4 04:38 TD MIN (4:38) 30-C.Ham left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – BUF 27
- Q4 00:49 TD MIN (:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 29 – BUF 27
- Q4 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 30 – BUF 30
- Q5 03:45 FG MIN (3:45) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 33 – BUF 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:18) 8-S.Martin punts 58 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 26 for 10 yards (15-J.Kumerow).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 71%
(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 30 for 8 yards (42-A.DePaola, 25-T.Jackson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%
(12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%
(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn (47-C.Benford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:09) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines ran ob at BUF 31 for 4 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 14 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:28) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 23 for 2 yards (15-J.Kumerow).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 22 for 13 yards (30-C.Ham, 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on MIN-33-B.Asamoah, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 22.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%
(1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%
(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -5. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 34 for 39 yards (17-J.Allen).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(9:02) 17-K.Osborn right end to MIN 45 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%
(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to BUF 39 for 12 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:34) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 73 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 27%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to BUF 41 for 32 yards (39-C.Lewis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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