Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(13:18) 8-S.Martin punts 58 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 26 for 10 yards (15-J.Kumerow).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model