Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 22 for 13 yards (30-C.Ham, 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on MIN-33-B.Asamoah, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.22 EP
71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model