Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 23

(3:34) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.32 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model