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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to BUF 39 for 12 yards (3-D.Hamlin).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model