4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 30 for 8 yards (42-A.DePaola, 25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP