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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

CLE
43.6%
MIA
56.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.206 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE on 6 more days rest than MIA
  • CLE defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 24
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Ankle
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Out Knee
Michael Dunn G Questionable Back

MIA

Hunter Long TE Out Concussion
Trent Sherfield WR Questionable Toe
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee
Tanner Conner TE Questionable Knee
Austin Jackson T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
MIA 39

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:18 TD CLE (12:18) 66-J.Hudson and 72-H.Froholdt reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 06:21 TD MIA (6:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 30-A.Ingold for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 11:09 FG MIA (11:09) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. CLE 7 – MIA 10
  • Q2 00:37 TD MIA (:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 14-T.Sherfield for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – MIA 16
  • Q3 11:42 TD MIA (11:42) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – MIA 23
  • Q3 07:00 FG CLE (7:00) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – MIA 24
  • Q3 00:41 TD MIA (:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – MIA 30
  • Q4 13:19 TD CLE (13:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – MIA 30
  • Q4 08:19 FG MIA (8:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. CLE 17 – MIA 33
  • Q4 07:13 TD MIA (7:13) 23-J.Wilson left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – MIA 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:02) (No Huddle) 23-J.Wilson right tackle to MIA 40 for 4 yards (44-S.Takitaki, 43-J.Johnson).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 65%

    (1:05) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to MIA 34 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (11:09) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 49%

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones (28-K.Kohou) [2-B.Chubb].

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (2:13) (No Huddle) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to CLE 15 for -1 yards (22-G.Delpit, 51-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to MIA 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 47 for 8 yards (37-D.Bell).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (7:00) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (8:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CLE 20 for -8 yards (sack split by 15-J.Phillips and 6-M.Ingram).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to CLE 42 for 13 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (4:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 18-Dav.Bell (28-K.Kohou) [6-M.Ingram].