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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 30 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model