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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 17 – Miami Dolphins 39

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 18-Dav.Bell (28-K.Kohou) [6-M.Ingram].

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP