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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (No Huddle) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to CLE 15 for -1 yards (22-G.Delpit, 51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model